There are as many competitive House races this year as usual


So it’s certainly possible for competitive racing to take place in a neighborhood that isn’t technically a swing neighborhood. For example, Joe Biden would have won Rhode Island’s 2nd District by 56% in 2020, but it’s a competitive race in 2022. A combination of the open seat, a particularly strong GOP candidate in Allan Fung, and the national political environment created a competitive race in a seat that is not considered a swing quarter.

There are fewer swing neighborhoods.

Thirty-four of the new districts in place for the 2022 election would have voted for Biden or President Donald Trump by 5 points or less in 2020, according to a CNN study. Before new district maps were drawn this year, there were 17 other districts that met this definition of swinginess.

The number of swing districts has also steadily declined over the past 25 years, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, a measure of how much more a district votes for a particular party, using the last two presidential races, compared to the nation as a set. Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman with Amy Walter Explain that the number of competitive districts with a Democratic or Republican lean of 5 percentage points or less has grown from 160 in 1998 to 82 now. The number of “hyper-competitive” districts in D+3 or R+3 or less has gone from 105 in 1998 to 45 today.

Nevertheless, there are as many competitive races, if not a few more, than the average for this cycle.


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